The world economy and financial market are at a crucial crossroad:
A new Cold War pitting the United States and Europe against China and Russia has begun in earnest. Cold War II will be economically more devastating than Cold War I given the globalization of manufacturing and the capital market over the past two decades.
Political polarization, especially among developed countries, is becoming more extreme. Reflecting changes in generational values and the inability of governments to address persistent wealth and income gaps, this phenomenon has become a major threat to political and policy stability.
A series of negative supply shocks (eg, COVID, Russia-Ukraine conflict) have upended the received wisdom about inflation, complicating both monetary policy and asset allocation decisions at a time of elevated asset valuation.
Retail investors, empowered by social media, are becoming a major and disruptive force in financial markets. The coming face-off between Wall Street and Main Street is already changing fundamental market dynamics.
Unbound is a global forum for honest dialogue about markets, economic, and politics. Our mission is to provide (1) unfiltered and critical analysis of the changing global landscape and (2) accurate predictions about major macro themes. Our approach is global, top-down, and actionable. We are not afraid to take on consensus; we are only afraid of being wrong.
In September 2020, I predicted that the US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested
In November 2019, I predicted that a US-China trade deal was coming soon and that Boris Johnson would win a decisive victory in the UK general election
In 2017, I was one of few on Wall Street who did not lose faith in the passage of tax reform
In September 2016, I predicted that Trump would win the presidential race and that Treasury yields and the USD would rise afterward
In April 2015, I predicted China was soon to devalue the renminbi and that this would slow down the normalization of monetary policy in the US
In 2013, I was the first Wall Street analyst to ever initiate coverage of Bitcoin
John grew up in Weardale, UK, where his father taught history at the local comprehensive school. John is gifted in math and received his PhD in Mathematics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. At a meditation class in graduate school he learned that his mind's natural state is what other people try to achieve through meditation. He see the world as it is, rather than how people want him to think it is. This is perhaps how he ended up on Wall Street, making a career looking for opportunities generated by volatility. He worked at Goldman Sachs (FX sales strategist), Bank of America (Head of quantitative FX research) and at Laurion Capital (equity quant researcher). John is focused on how different people might be motivated to buy or sell at different times and has developed a quantitative approach for anticipating behavior of market participants. His weekly column More buyers or sellers identifies short-term opportunities of popular stocks on the move (or that are about to be).
Oded Carmeli is an Israeli poet, editor and freelance science journalist. He writes for multiple media outlets, including the Israeli Space Agency, Haaretz and Tel Aviv University. Oded's Start-up Nation are interviews with the CEOs/CTOs of leading Israeli start-ups working about transformative technologies and how they may change the world.
Born in Pittsburgh; grew up in Taiwan; educated in the US; worked and lived in Europe for 10 years; present home: Israel
My Chinese heritage instilled in me a love for history
America taught me to cherish freedom of expression
In Europe I learned to place my trust in reason and facts
Israel shows me ideas are sometimes worth fighting for
PRODUCT OF GLOBALIZATION
Head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research, Bank of America, New York (2010-20)
Head of Global Foreign Exchange Strategy, Barclays Capital, London (2004-10)
Head of Local Markets Strategy for Central Europe, Middle East and Africa, Citigroup, London (2000-04)
Economist, International Monetary Fund, Washington (1996 - 2000)
Ph.D. in Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY (1991-96)
B.S in Mathematics, Tufts University, Medford, MA (1986-90)
Northfield Mount Hermon School, Northfield, MA (1983-86)